Laura and Marco: Model Agreement

This morning, it’s finally looking like we have some clarity on what Laura and Marco are going to do. In yesterday’s post, I was critical of how the NHC handled their forecast products on these two storms. Today, I think these are pretty good.

Marco (the yellow area with the “x” in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico) is going to continue traveling north-northwest today on a path for New Orleans. It looks like Marco will make landfall south of New Orleans on Monday as a Category 1 Hurricane. He should then start to weaken fairly quickly. I’m not sure I think the left turn will be as drastic as this forecast shows, but it’s safe to say most of Louisiana and Mississippi will get some rain out of this system.

Laura is now at the western tip of Hispaniola. She’s had to fight the island overnight and this morning, and amazingly has done it. Looking at satellite, it looks like there have been multiple areas of low pressure that have popped up and faded as she’s traveled the island, with most of those centers right along the southern edge of the island. Yesterday, I was thinking that Laura would go on the north side of Cuba, but given where the center of the low pressure is today, I’m thinking she’s going to ride the southern edge of Cuba and the NHC’s guidance is good on this idea. All of that is going to keep Laura from becoming a hurricane until she gets into the Gulf of Mexico late Monday night or early Sunday morning. (This suggests that technically, we won’t have two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, since Marco should make landfall Monday morning, and Laura won’t enter the Gulf until late Monday and as a Tropical Storm, not as a Hurricane)

Once Laura gets into the Gulf she will swing around below Marco’s wake to tap into the warmer waters in the western Gulf of Mexico. That’s when she should become a hurricane. It’s looking like Laura has the opportunity to be stronger than Marco, but I’m not sure if she makes it to major hurricane status or not. I think Laura will make landfall somewhere around Beaumont and Lake Charles on Wednesday evening.

Now that the models have a better handle on these systems, the forecasts will be much more precise and accurate from here on in, and that will give people in the path time to prepare. If you are in that path, anywhere from Houston to Biloxi, you need to be preparing now!