Laura forecast to become a major hurricane

10AM forecast track from NHC

Laura has officially made it to hurricane status in the south central Gulf of Mexico, and should become a major hurricane before landfall tomorrow night.

The latest forecast track from NHC shows Laura reaching a category 3 with 115mph winds before moving inland near the Texas/Louisiana line. A very slight shift to the west is noted on the latest forecast track.

At this point, models are honed in and have an area nailed down to either side of Houston. There is some concern that Laura could head even further west and take a more direct aim on the Houston Metro. Now is the time to finalize plans and put them into action.

12z HRRR for Wednesday night

Mandatory evacuations are being issued along the upper Texas coastline, and adjacent parts of Louisiana. We strongly suggest taking them seriously.

12z NAM Wednesday night

As mentioned above, the NHC forecasts Laura to reach category 3 strength just before landfall Wednesday night. Most models average at category 3 strength, but the GFS, EURO, and NAM all show Laura stronger than that (cat 4+).

06z GFS Thursday morning

As for the why, Laura is experiencing much less shear than Marco did, and her overall structure is better. She has a lot of warm Gulf water, and an atmosphere conducive for development. To her north, remains a mid-level ridge of high pressure that continues to be measured stronger than models are seeing. This would keep Laura moving on a westward track, and is the main reason why we feel Houston could be more at play here.

We will be going live on Facebook with the Big Bad Weather Blog this evening at 8pm. Join us there to get your questions answered.