Ida Stays on Track

Tropical Storm Ida is still on track with no major changes to her path or intensity. We are still expecting her to cross over the western end of Cuba today, and get into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. There she will intensify into a hurricane as she continues a northwest path. Just before making landfall late Sunday, Ida should strengthen into a Cat 3 major hurricane and land in south Louisiana between Lafayette and New Orleans. This has been our thinking since the beginning, and the National Hurricane Center has also been consistent with this forecast.

Here’s part of why we have such high confidence in Ida. The models are all pretty much in agreement. They are all picking up on an upper level high pressure system sitting over the Carolinas that will steer Ida into Louisiana and up the Mississippi River. The path makes sense when you look at the physics of what’s going on in the atmosphere, and the models are all pretty much seeing the same thing.

This is from the HWRF hurricane model showing what Ida looks like just before landfall Sunday afternoon. I chose this output because it’s in line with most of the models and shows just how intense Ida could become. That part of Louisiana where Ida comes ashore could see more than a foot of rain in 24 hours, so flooding becomes a real threat in and around Baton Rogue through the day on Monday.

We will keep providing regular updates here at Storm Guides. But, as usual, you are really in charge of what we put out and talk about. So, if you have questions about this storm or its impacts on you and your family, please ask. You can use our new chat feature, or contact us on our Facebook page.