Delta Coming Ashore

Hurricane Delta is coming ashore today in Southwest Louisiana, in almost the exact same place that Hurricane Laura did back in August. Some people just got power back two weeks ago after Laura, and now run the risk of being in the dark again for an extended period of time.

That said, Delta should not be as bad as Laura was. For one, Laura was a Cat 4 at landfall. Delta is currently a Cat 3. Secondly, Laura was getting stronger at landfall. Delta should start to weaken a bit during the day today.

There are two reasons why we’re expecting Delta to get a little weaker. The first is the upper level winds. They will start trying to take the top of the storm off towards the east-northeast. This will cause a little separation in the structure of the storm in the upper levels, and that separation weakens the storm slightly. Second, the water in the Gulf that’s sitting between where Delta is now and the coast is cooler than the water she had been traveling over. That should also take a little energy out of the storm.

So, we are expecting Delta to either be a weakening Cat 3 at landfall or a Cat 2. It also looks like she’ll lose her power fairly quickly after landfall, and will not maintain hurricane strength as far north as Laura did earlier this year.

Here is the latest track from the NHC on Delta. Notice the track takes her from just east of Lake Charles Louisiana, passing just west of Alexandria, and moving up towards Monroe, Louisiana in the northeast corner of the state.

There is a risk for isolated tornadoes along that path and east over to the Alabama/Mississippi border through the day today. The tornado risk should decrease significantly tomorrow.

The Flash Flood risk, however remains. This is the quantitative precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Notice the wide swath of the state that is looking at the potential for up to 10” of rain today and tomorrow. That’s where we’ll see the biggest potential for flash flooding, and for large trees to be toppled due to high winds and over saturation of the ground.

In summary, while this storm won’t be as bad as Laura, it will be hitting many of the same areas for the second time this season. People in Southwest Louisiana have had an especially difficult time recovering from Laura, and this is not going to help. We need to keep our neighbors in those areas in mind and help them recover once Delta is done.