Invest 92L working on getting better organized

Morning analysis shows Invest 92L is trying to get its act together, but still having a hard time. Hurricane Hunters are set to check out the system later today.

RIGHT NOW:

If you’ve been checking in the last few days, the first thing you’ll notice about the latest satellite picture is there is a lot more spin to Invest 92L this morning. There circulation isn’t still very broad and thunderstorm activity is mainly to the east of the overall spin. What we’ll be watching for today is if Invest 92L can develop a tight circulation where thunderstorms start firing up.

WHAT’S NEXT:

We’re getting into the 48 hour window of when this system comes ashore. As we have been consistently saying, we are still expecting a landfall between Houston and New Orleans. At this point, I feel about 95% confident the center of the storm will come in somewhere between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge, and then will turn NE pretty quickly and potentially come across part of the New Orleans metro area.

Spaghetti plots show a westward trend towards Texas this morning, but I’m throwing those out for now for a couple of reasons: 1. Models show a center developing NE of where they think it is now. 2. A large upper low is protecting Texas, and should steer the system more N or NE.

The GFS favors the eastern thinking as posted below.

The EURO is slightly further west but still keeps the system out of SE Texas.

Some of the short range models are now within reach and the NAM leans closer to the GFS. All of these images are around 7:00pm on Friday.

IMPACTS:

The biggest impact from this event will be rain. Rain and storms will be displaced to the east of the center with this one, and rain bands could start coming ashore by Friday evening across SE Louisiana and to the east.

Winds may still reach tropical storm strength. So some 40mph wind gusts can’t be ruled out. Although intensity forecasts have really come down over the last 24 hours.

There could be tornadoes. Landfalling systems bring a lot of spin and a lot of shear. Be watching for waterspouts coming ashore over the weekend from Louisiana to Florida.