Invest 92L to start drifting north Thursday

Invest 92L is still located over the southwest corner of the Gulf of Mexico and has not gained any organization, but that is expected to change soon.

RIGHT NOW:

Invest 92L remains rather disorganized and still doesn’t have a clear center of circulation. Rain and storms continue to fire up around the broad low pressure system, but until an established and well defined center forms there won’t be any rapid strengthening.

WHAT’S NEXT:

Models came into a little bit better agreement on timing and placement last night. The GFS and EURO are both now favoring a possible landfall west of New Orleans. How far west ranges from Houston to Baton Rouge.

The intensity forecasts continue to show a tropical storm. I will mention that the EURO came in a bit stronger with winds in the overnight runs. It’s the first time I saw wind gusts potentially up to 60mph. That’s something we’ll keep an eye on in the trends. The GFS shows winds more likely between 40 - 50mph.

IMPACTS:

We mentioned the winds above, but that is not our main concern. It’s the rainfall we’ll be focused on.

The Weather Prediction Center shows rainfall totals up to 10” between now and next Tuesday across a large swath of the southeast. This includes SE Louisiana, Mississippi, and into Alabama.

Coastal and inland flooding will be the biggest problems from this system, and due to the likelihood of it being rather disorganized those impacts will mainly be felt east of where it makes landfall.