One More Pass

Most people in Texas and Louisiana woke up to at least a dusting of snow on the ground, went outside, took pictures, posted them to Facebook, and promptly went back inside. Good plan!

But, we’re not done yet. There’s one more winter storm coming through Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi this week. And, this one looks like it could cause more trouble, especially for power outages and damage to trees.

This is the NAM-NEST model for Tuesday afternoon. Notice the wide band of snow in Oklahoma. The good news for folks in Oklahoma is that this whole event remains a snow event.

There are a few light rain showers in West Texas and along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville up to Corpus Christi. For the areas south of Houston and San Antonio, this will remain a rain event.

But, for areas in between South Texas and Oklahoma and over to Mississippi, it’s going to get more complicated.

Here we are early Wednesday morning. There’s snow in Oklahoma, rain from Austin to Houston and south. And, in between, it’s more complicated. Notice the band of purple and pink along and south of I-20 from Abeline, through Ft. Worth and Dallas, and over to the Louisiana border. It extends south into Central Texas, including Waco and Athens.

When we look at temperatures at the surface for this same time period (Wednesday morning) we see that temperatures have climbed just above freezing from the coast up through about Lufkin, Texas. But, in Central and North Texas, those surface temperatures are still below freezing, which means that any liquid that falls from the skies will freeze on impact. And, it’s going to stay that way throughout this next event.

Here we are around noon on Wednesday, and the focus of the storm has shifted over to Shreveport/Bossier City, Louisiana. And, that blob of purple and pink says most of what’s falling is either sleet or freezing rain. The line separating the snow from the ice is up along I-30, further north that the snow/ice line from last night.

And, unfortunately, the mess continues for the entire day. Here’s the NAM-NEST precipitation forecast for Wednesday evening. What’s left falling in the DFW Metroplex has shifted back over to a light snow. But, in North Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and North Mississippi, it’s a mess.

The biggest threats from this system will be power outages and falling tree limbs. Because whatever falls from the skies will freeze on impact, it’s possible to get an accumulation of ice on power lines and tree branches. If we get too much, the weight will simply snap both. Not only will that knock out power in many areas, but because of the overall coverage of the areas impacted, it could take several days to get the power restored.

This is a projection from the National Weather Service of ice accumulation. Notice the area of dark green from around Buffalo Texas, through East Texas, North Louisiana, Southeast Arkansas, and Northeast Mississippi. That area has a 50% chance of seeing ice accumulations greater than a quarter inch. That’s enough to bring down power lines throughout that region.

Also notice the bullseye of blue around Shreveport and Ruston, Louisiana. That’s an area that has a 50% chance of seeing ice accumulations of half an inch or more. That’s enough to bring down tree branches.

Travel in these areas on Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday morning will be very dangerous. It’s likely to see downed power lines, large tree branches blocking roads, and iced-over roadways.

I know that I can get a little weather nerdy in some of these discussions, so if you have questions, please feel free to ask on our Storm Guides’ Facebook page at any time. We’ll respond to those questions as soon as we can.