Severe Weather for South; Blizzard develops for Great Plains

A very active weather pattern is shaping up from this evening through Wednesday. The main event will be Tuesday with severe storms and tornadoes possible across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss and a major blizzard for the Northern Plains.

Severe Weather Threat in The South Tuesday

Above is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center related to the expected severe weather outbreak on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The areas shaded in orange are at the highest threat for seeing tornadoes, hail, and gusty winds. I will break down timing shortly. You can see Shreveport, Bossier City, Ruston, Monroe, Natchitoches, and Alexandria are shaded in the orange color indicating a 3 out of 5 on the risk scale. Timing in those areas will range between 12:00pm Tuesday to Midnight from west to east. Let’s look at some model data.

HRRR Model at 9am Tuesday

Storms are likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Some of those could be severe with gusty winds at 60mph or higher. These storms will develop across OK and TX and move east during the day.

HRRR Model at noon Tuesday

By noon, models show storms entering into the ArkLaTex Region including NE TX and SW AR. These storms will also be capable of producing damaging winds.

HRRR Model at 5pm Tuesday

This will be the time period where the weather turns its worst. The hours between 3pm and 10pm. As you can clearly see, models show storms becoming much stronger and much better organized. These storms will pose the highest threat for tornadoes and all modes of severe weather.

This particular model run shows a 2nd broken line of storms developing ahead of the initial line still located between Shreveport and Ruston. This 2nd line extends from just east of Monroe down to Alexandria. Both lines will be capable of producing tornadoes.

HRRR Model at 10pm Tuesday

Storms continue to press eastward through LA and AR and into MS and TN by the late evening. The threat for tornadoes, winds, and hail will move east with it.

HRRR Model at 6am Wednesday

Storms will linger overnight and possibly even redevelop over areas that saw them earlier on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, the worst of the weather will be draped across Central MS, LA, & to the southwest. Showers may redevelop over the ArkLaTex Region again.

Blizzard for the Northern Plains

Here is what the radar may look like tomorrow evening through Tuesday afternoon. While this is just one model solution, it is generally consistent with our expectations for the upcoming event. #sdwx #wywx pic.twitter.com/n5mDsrrBKP

— NWS Rapid City (@NWSRapidCity) December 12, 2022

Update: Please Retweet (🧵)

Blizzard Warnings (red) now for much of WY High Plains & all NE Panhandle. Winter Storm Warnings & Winter Weather Advisories also in effect.

When: Prolonged event - starting late evening west expanding east early Tues. & continuing to late Weds. 1/5 pic.twitter.com/SKBMkmnC60

— NWS Cheyenne (@NWSCheyenne) December 12, 2022

Update: Please Retweet (🧵)

Blizzard Warnings (red) now for much of WY High Plains & all NE Panhandle. Winter Storm Warnings & Winter Weather Advisories also in effect.

When: Prolonged event - starting late evening west expanding east early Tues. & continuing to late Weds. 1/5 pic.twitter.com/SKBMkmnC60

— NWS Cheyenne (@NWSCheyenne) December 12, 2022

A winter storm is expected across the northern plains with mixed precipitation/freezing rain to possibly start the event this evening and into Tue. Heavy Snow then moves in by Tue through Wed morning. Difficult travel conditions are expected within the Dakotas and MN. #Mnwx #Ndwx pic.twitter.com/d9G3K7KHSr

— NWS Grand Forks (@NWSGrandForks) December 12, 2022

A wide area from Colorado to Nebraska, Wyoming, and the Dakotas will see a blizzard develop tonight and into Tuesday. It will bring the potential for 1-2 feet of snow for some areas, but of course, wind and visibility problems is truly what makes blizzards so bad. Extremely dangerous travel conditions are expected across these areas between tonight and Wednesday. Snow could linger through Thursday for the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

Stay tuned to Storm Guides for more information. We may be launching the Live Weather Blog on Facebook to cover these storms tomorrow.