Beta’s Landfall

Tropical Storm Beta is inching nearer to the Texas coast around Corpus Christi. She’s still expected to make landfall later today or very early on Tuesday. The whole idea that Beta bounces along the coast is still in play, and the NHC has decreased the area of the forecast cone that gets very far inland.

This is the NAM-3km (North American Model with a 3 kilometer resolution). It’s showing the forecast idea pretty well. Beta wobbles into Corpus, bounces around for a bit, and then slowly makes her way up the coast. Beta will be spinning around Corpus today, and tomorrow. By Wednesday, what’s left will be around Houston. By Thursday, what’s left will be near Lake Charles. Fortunately, Beta has already lost some strength, and isn’t expected to gain much power before landfall. After landfall, it becomes very difficult for her to maintain her strength.

Our biggest concern with Beta has been the potential for flooding, especially along the coast. But, the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from the WPC today has really dropped the rainfall totals. Two days ago, we were looking at large areas of 10”-15” of rain. Today, there’s no area on land that’s expected to get that much precipitation. Now, we’re mostly looking at areas of up to 6” of rain. That’s wet and soggy, but a lot less of an overall threat than 15”!