Update on Beryl - Target Texas

We need to do an update on Beryl for you since things have changed as she came across the Yucatan. We had been expecting her to come out a little further south than she did. Instead, Beryl went for the path of least resistance (as hurricanes often do) and came out a bit further north.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Because she has come out further north, it opens up more of Texas to a potential direct hit, and less of Mexico. We had been thinking Beryl was heading towards the mouth of the Rio Grande as a Cat 1. We’re now thinking that she’s going to come in much further north than that.

Here’s the NHC’s track…

Source: National Hurricane Center

So, they are calling for a hit anywhere from Brownsville, TX up to Lake Charles, LA.

There are a couple of things that I’m looking at. First, the upper level High Pressure system that’s been camping out over the south eastern US is weakening and drifting east. I would put the center of that upper level high over Pensacola, FL. That’s important, because it gives Beryl a little wiggle room to the east, or on the right hand of the track. Second, the shape of the Texas coast can come into play the way Beryl is approaching. Based on past storms, I’m concerned about a slight turn towards the right along with a strengthening just before landfall.

My thinking at this point is a landfall around daybreak on Monday near Matagorda Bay between Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. Most of the models are calling for a Cat 1, but I think she could get up to a Cat 2 before landfall.

The European Model is showing this thinking pretty well.

Source: Tropical Tidbits

Source: College of Du Page

These are two different looks at it. Both are the European model for about 7 AM Monday.

If this is the landfall scenario, then it means more than 5” of rainfall along and east of a line from about Victoria, Texas up to College Station. That could cause some significant flooding problems in Houston and up to Lake Livingston.