Winter in Dallas?

The risk for severe weather from Houston running up to Memphis has decreased for today. Temperatures are already lower in those areas than they were over the weekend, and the upper level winds haven’t set up to increase uplift through the atmosphere. Both of those things are good things and decrease the risk of storms getting too big for their britches.

There is still a risk for severe weather in southern Louisiana through Tennessee Wednesday, and from Florida up to South Carolina on Thursday. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is going to add some fuel to this system, and so, we’ll keep an eye on things for you there.

But, the big question I’m getting is, “Will Dallas actually get some snow?!?!?”

Sorry, but I don’t think so. Yes, there is a winter storm coming to parts of North Texas, it’s just further northwest of the Metroplex. Wichita Falls and Lawton are likely to see snow. Dallas and Denton, not so much.

Here’s why. First, temperatures at the surface will hang out just above freezing until after sunset Wednesday. Yes, it can snow at 36, but it won’t stick. And, in order for you to get snow when the surface temperature is above freezing, the air just above the surface has to be below freezing. That’s not what it looks like is happening over Dallas and Ft. Worth tomorrow. Temperatures in the lower atmosphere at what we call the 850mb level will also hang out just above freezing until sunset. So, the precipitation will be a cold rain mixed with some melting sleet. By the time the freezing air pushes into the cities, most of the precipitation will be finished. Any chance of snow will come after the sun goes down, and will be very light at best. But, since the ground will still be above freezing, the few flakes that do fall will melt rather quickly.