Slight Chance for Days

There is a storm system that’s developing today in southwest Texas that will swing across the southern states this week. It will create a chance for strong storms starting in Texas and then traveling through Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi tomorrow.

It’s gotten unseasonably warm in these areas over the weekend. And, while the weather has felt amazing for the first of February, it also means there’s fuel for storms. Thunderstorms live off of heat and humidity, and we’ve added that into this mix.

But, in order for storms to truly become Big and Bad, they usually need some upper air support. While there is an upper level trough swinging through that’s creating this storm system, the shape of that upper level system is what we call “positively tilted.” What this means is the trough generally runs from the southwest to the northeast. That shape of the jet stream isn’t as efficient at creating Big Bad storms as it is when it becomes “negatively tilted.” A negatively tilted storm, which is angled from the northwest to the southeast creates more spin in the atmosphere, and that spin is more efficient at lifting warm, humid air more rapidly.

Fortunately, this week, our upper level system is positively tilted, and that should prevent us from seeing a major outbreak of Big Bad weather. We’ll keep an eye on it, and if we need to, we will launch the Big Bad Weather Blog to keep you updated with these storms.