Beta Bounce
Tropical Storm Beta has had a very difficult time getting organized today. Not only is Beta stuck between two high pressure systems that are preventing it from moving forward very well, but there are some upper level winds that are blowing the top layers of the storm off towards the northeast. That sheer is also hurting Beta’s chances of getting much stronger anytime soon.
Above, you see the official forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center. It’s not as intense as earlier runs, and keeps Beta as a Tropical Storm all the way to landfall on Monday or early Tuesday.
What happens after landfall is still a bit of a question.
This GIF above is the HWRF tropical model. Notice it takes the center of the storm right over Corpus Christi, TX, but then bounces Beta back out to sea. That bounce may be a little overdone, but the idea has merit. Beta has a real problem after making landfall. Several of the models take the upper level center of rotation off towards the northeast, but the lower surface level rotation gets stuck by a surface high in Central Texas. It should eventually turn towards the Lake Charles area as a Tropical Depression, or maybe a weak Tropical Storm by late next week. But, that separation from the lower and upper level rotations will prevent the storm from getting stronger.
So, it’s looking like the biggest threat from Beta will be the rainfall. This graphic above is the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for the next five days from the Weather Prediction Center. It’s showing between 10”-15” of rain along the coast all the way from Corpus over to nearly New Orleans. There’s also a band of 6”-10” of rain a little further inland and up into northeast Louisiana. With Beta meandering near and along the coast through much of the week, it will still be able to tap into tropical moisture, bring it in over land, and drop it in bucket loads. So, the lower forecast for winds are certainly welcome, but that doesn’t mean anyone wants to see Beta hand around as long as she appears to be planning on staying.