1st Storm of 2024 in the Gulf of Mexico?

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially began just weeks ago on June 1st and so far it’s been rather quiet. Will that change soon?

June 12th - 12z European Model

Well, yes and no. Pictured above is today’s 12z run of the EURO and we’re looking at the probabilities of tropical storm development. As you can see in the southwest corner of The Gulf, there is some potential showing up for early next week. Right now, chances are at around 40 - 50% of seeing Alberto form.

So why yes? We’ve seen one tropical system that did not become organized enough to be named already this week. It brought a lot of rain to Florida along with some gusty winds. As of now, it’s just an area of disturbed weather. That is forecast to move up along the East Coast this weekend.

The second reason we’re seeing an uptick in interest is because of this new possibility showing up in the data for early next week. Whether this area actually organizes or not, it will bring a lot of rain to Mexico and Texas. At this point, I see no reason that this system would become anything super strong and it’s unlikely to threaten other areas of the Gulf of Mexico outside of some rain chances.

Why do I also say no to quiet pattern changing for the tropics? Right now, there are just no major threats out there. So there’s no reason to panic. This potential in the GoM next week has very little time to truly organize. So my “hurricane senses” just aren’t tingling quite yet.