Tropical Update: Invest 92L and TS Bill

Tropical Storm Bill formed overnight and Invest 92L continues to churn over the Bay of Campeche.

TROPICAL STORM BILL:

Bill has max winds of 50mph and is currently moving away from the US at 31mph. Bill will move into colder waters and gradually weaken with time.

INVEST 92L: RIGHT NOW

Aside from producing showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche and Mexico, 92L isn’t doing much. I have noticed a bit more thunderstorm activity this morning compared to yesterday’s analysis around this same time. NHC puts chances at 40% for development into a tropical cyclone in 48 hours and 80% over the next five days.

WHAT’S NEXT:

Models are still in good agreement of this system coming north towards the Gulf Coast this weekend. The EURO is later (Sun) and farther west between Houston and Lake Charles, and the GFS is earlier (Fri/Sat) and further east between Lafayette and New Orleans. You can see below that the model spread still favors the thinking between Houston and New Orleans.

Intensity forecasts have come down from yesterday. We’re still thinking a low end tropical storm is possible by landfall.

IMPACTS:

This is looking more and more like a big rain event. Areas that have seen so much rain this spring could see up to 10” of additional rain from now through next Tuesday. This system likely won’t be extremely organized throughout its lifespan. So rain bands could be displaced well to the east of the center.

Stay tuned for future updates!