Two Tropical Depressions
The National Hurricane Center has labeled two new Tropical Depressions. TD 13 in in the Atlantic east of the leeward islands. TD 14 is in the Caribbean between Jamaica and Nicaragua.
I put together a composite image of the projected tracks from the NHC above. These tracks are very early, and frankly, I’m not sure the models have a great handle on them yet. As a result, this is going to be a tricky forecast for a while before we get a good handle on the eventual paths these storms will take.
There are really two things going on in the models that I expect will change over the next 48 hours. The first is the high pressure system that’s sitting north of TD 13. We call that the Bermuda High. Right now, it doesn’t look that strong to me, but the computer models have that high pressure system forcing TD 13 into the Gulf. I’m not convinced, yet. I think it’s possible TD 13 will go towards Miami or further north. So, if you’re looking at the track the NHC put out above, my thinking is the right side of that track is a bit more likely than the left.
The second issue is TD 14. Notice the track posted by the NHC keeps TD 14 as a Tropical storm, and not a hurricane. TD 13 does become a hurricane (and could become a very powerful hurricane at that). So, the models are recognizing that there’s going to be some low pressure in the Gulf over the weekend and into the first of next week. I think right now, that’s making them want to pull TD 13 into the Gulf because there’s supposed to be some low pressure in the Gulf. But, I think that area of low pressure will be TD 14, not TD 13. I don’t really have any criticisms of the track for TD 14. It seems pretty likely and very reasonable to me at this point. However, if the storm ends up on the left hand side of the track above, then that would mean I was wrong about TD 13, and it’s more likely it would get into the Gulf the first part of next week.
It’s early for both of these storms. As they start to get stronger, the models will get a better grasp on their behavior and their future paths. We’ll stay on top of it for you and keep posting blogs about them here on Storm Guides.